New Study Comparing Indexed and Actively Managed Funds
(Apr 2013)
NerdWallet, a San Francisco based personal investing site, has performed a historical study of the returns on almost 8,000 mutual funds and ETFs over a ten year period and found that passive indexed funds tend to outperform actively managed funds on average. In fact, they found that only 24% of actively managed funds outperformed the average return of the indexed funds. These results are consistent with the annual SPIVA Scorecard produced by S&P Dow Jones Indices, which found in both 2012...
Persistence and Mean Reversion in Market Data
(Mar 2013)
Jason Voss at the CFA Institute has recently written a very interesting series of posts on the Hurst exponent, which is "a method for detecting persistence, randomness, or mean reversion in financial markets." The Hurst exponent measures the degree to which a signal depends on previous values--a phenomenon known as autocorrelation--and specifically whether values tend to 'switch' (e.g., high values followed by low values) or 'persist' (e.g., high values followed by other high values). Jason...
How Big of an Effect Does Securities Lending Have on ETF Returns?
(Feb 2013)
We earlier posted an analysis that compared ETF returns to their stated index net of fees for funds that lend securities and those that do not. IndexUniverse subsequently suggested an approach with methodological differences from our original work and we wanted to address some of those differences here.
For our sample, we used Bloomberg's ETF function to collect all US-domiciled, USD-denominated exchange-traded funds and removed any with active trading strategies, leverage, or inception dates...
Securities Lending by ETFs
(Feb 2013)
One of the most contentious but least understood aspects of the stock market is short selling. Short selling refers to selling a stock that you do not own at current market prices, with the hopes that the stock will go down in price. The stock can be purchased in the market at any time to close out the position and, if the stock has decreased in price, the short-seller will realize a profit. Obviously, the only way to accomplish this is by borrowing that stock from someone else.
Typically,...
Chinese Markets are Closed--So What Happens to China-based ETFs in the US?
(Feb 2013)
Happy Chinese New Year! Markets were closed in many Asian countries last week, while US markets remained open. As noted by several commentators, this means that while US ETFs that hold Chinese equities were actively traded, their underlying assets were not. So what does this mean for China-based ETFs traded in the US?
First, it's important to note how ETFs relate to their underlying assets. Essentially, ETF shares can be created by certain traders (called authorized participants) by buying...
Structured Certificates of Deposit Week
(Feb 2013)
Over the past several months, we have noticed more and more bank deposits that resemble structured products. These products go by various names: market-linked certificates of deposit, equity-linked certificates of deposit, contingent interest certificates of deposits, etc. For parsimony, we refer to these types of products as "structured CDs" or simply "SCDs".
We think structured CDs are a very significant development, as they can be designed to provide highly complex exposure, are almost...
Why a Physical Copper ETF Might be a Really Big Deal
(Dec 2012)
JP Morgan recently obtained approval by the SEC to launch a new copper ETF that, instead of holding derivatives linked to copper, will actually accumulate physical copper itself. While this may not seem like a thrilling market development, there are serious concerns that if this ETF becomes popular and garners significant assets, the world market for copper might be upended. Here's why:
Think of demand for copper as having two components: demand for industrial or productive uses and demand as...
Derivatives in Active ETFs
(Dec 2012)
Over two and a half years ago, the SEC initiated a moratorium on approvals for new ETFs that made extensive use of derivatives such as options and futures contracts. Much of the concern at that time was that derivatives-based ETFs, particularly leveraged, inverse, and futures-based ETFs may not have investor protections or oversight commensurate with their level of risk. Regular readers of this blog know that we have spent a good deal of time discussing those issues in addition to our ...
